If you’ve been following my commentary for a while, you’ll know I always advocate for a long-term perspective when it comes to property.

While market cycles may come and go, the big-picture fundamentals rarely change, and they all point to one thing: Australian property values will continue to rise.

But every now and then, it’s worth putting some numbers to that idea.

A recent analysis by PropTrack has projected median house prices across Australia in 2030.

These forecasts aren’t just interesting—they reinforce what smart investors already know: We’re still in the early stages of a major property wealth transfer, and those who position themselves correctly today will be the long-term winners.

The forecasts: where could prices be in 2030?

Using a modest annual capital growth rate of 4%, PropTrack has modelled what median house prices could look like in five years’ time.

Here’s what they’re forecasting:

Note: These numbers reflect compound annual growth at just 4%, below the historical average of 6–7% in many capital city growth corridors.

By the way…it’s easy to outperfrom the averages in property.

Imagine if you own an investment-grade property in a tightly held suburb, with strong gentrification drivers, limited supply, and increasing demand.

Your personal capital growth might easily outperform these median figures.

But why will prices keep rising?

Let’s take a step back and ask: What’s driving this projected growth?

While the numbers are useful, the underlying forces are even more important, and give us insight into what kind of properties and locations will perform best.

1. Strong population growth is back

Australia is once again one of the fastest-growing developed countries in the world.

The federal government has forecast an increase of nearly 3 million people by 2030, driven primarily by immigration.

Where will they live?

Most new arrivals settle in capital cities, particularly Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane.

This drives up housing demand in those areas, especially in the inner and middle rings, where land is scarce.

2. We’re not building fast enough

There’s a clear mismatch between population growth and housing supply.

Construction activity is constrained by:

The National Housing Accord’s goal to build 1.2 million homes over five years is ambitious, which is unlikely to be met.

That shortfall will place even more upward pressure on property prices, particularly in high-demand, low-supply areas.

3. Inflation is repricing everything

Even after the worst of the inflation spike has passed, we’re living in a “higher for longer” environment.

That means replacement costs are up—it’s more expensive to build a home, to develop a site, or to subdivide land.

In turn, this pushes the floor price of property higher.

You can’t build the same home for what it cost five years ago. And this new pricing becomes the benchmark.

4. Rising wages and dual-income households

Wages are rising slowly but steadily.

More importantly, dual-income households are now the norm in most capital cities.

This boosts borrowing capacity and purchasing power over time, even with tighter lending conditions.

So while today’s interest rates might be putting pressure on affordability, buyers are still active, and the moment rates start to ease (likely in late 2025), pent-up demand will surge.

5. Owner-occupier demand is driving the market

Unlike previous cycles, this growth isn’t being led by speculative investors.

It’s largely being driven by upgraders, downsizers, and first-home buyers—people with emotional motivation and long-term intent.

That’s important because it creates a more stable market foundation.

It also means quality, liveable homes in desirable suburbs will continue to command premium prices.

The big picture for investors

Here’s the key takeaway: These projections should reinforce your conviction, not tempt you into speculative behaviour.

I’m not suggesting you rush out and buy just anything.

In fact, now more than ever, asset selection is critical.

You want to own properties that will outperform the averages—ones that:

• Are in gentrifying inner- and middle-ring suburbs

• Appeal to high-income owner-occupiers

• Have land value and scarcity underpinning their worth

• Are in areas benefiting from infrastructure spending and jobs growth

Buying the right property in the right location and holding it for the long term is what creates true wealth.

Compound growth is your friend—but only if you let time do its job.

Let’s do a quick example:

Say you buy a $1 million investment-grade property in 2025.

At 4% compounding annual growth, it will be worth:

• $1.22 million in 2030

• $1.49 million in 2035

• $1.82 million in 2040

That’s over $800,000 in capital growth in 15 years—and that’s just assuming below average performance.

The right asset in the right suburb could see significantly more upside.

Where could the risks lie?

Naturally, not all areas will benefit equally.

I’d be cautious around:

• Outer ring suburbs with land estates—where supply is abundant and infrastructure is lagging.

• Investor-heavy high-rise towers, especially in the CBDs, where values and rents are volatile.

• Mining towns or one-industry regions that are vulnerable to economic shocks or boom-bust cycles.

Also, as property values rise, governments may look to intervene—think higher land taxes, changes to negative gearing, or restrictions on foreign buyers.

None of this is new, and savvy investors know how to navigate policy shifts, but it’s worth staying informed and adaptable.

Final thoughts: don’t wait to be priced out

Yes, today’s market is challenging. Interest rates are higher, consumer confidence is mixed, and there’s uncertainty in the economy.

But these aren’t reasons to sit on the sidelines.

There are reasons to be strategic, proactive, and well-advised.

Because by 2030, today’s prices will look cheap.

And while most people are still waiting for “the right time to buy,” successful investors are positioning themselves now.

About Brett Warren
Brett Warren is National Director of Metropole Properties and uses his two decades of property investment experience to advise clients how to grow, protect and pass on their wealth through strategic property advice.