Slerahan.com

Curated for the Inquisitive Mind

Real Estate

Everything you need to know about the state of Australia’s property markets in 20 charts – December 2023

Key takeaways

The value of residential real estate increased to an estimated $10.3 trillion at the end of November, up from $10.2 trillion in the previous month.

Dwelling values across the combined capitals rose 0.6% in November. Monthly growth across the capital cities has broadly eased since recording a recent high of 1.5% in May.

The growth trajectory for housing values across the combined capitals has slowed markedly through November. This was likely a reflection of higher interest rate settings, a rise in total listings volumes, and stretched affordability.

Perth led capital growth performance in the greater capital city markets. In the year to November, Perth home values increased 13.5%. In the three months to November, Perth home values rose 5.4%.

Adelaide, Brisbane and Perth home values are currently at a record high.

In the 12 months to November, CoreLogic estimates there were 479,477 sales nationally. This is -7.6% lower than the sales volume to November 2022.

Monthly sales volumes have generally trended higher through to the end of the year, and are above the historic five-year average monthly sales volume of 40,972.

It is taking slightly longer to sell properties, the rate of vendor discounting now looks to be steadying at -3.3%, new listings have begun a seasonal slowdown, and total listings are gradually lifting, but remain -17.7% below the historic five-year average.

The final clearance rate across the combined capital cities market is currently trending lower.

Want to know what’s happening to the housing markets around Australia?

Well, this monthly collection of charts from CoreLogic paints an interesting picture.

Our property markets turned the corner earlier this year and despite 13 interest rate increases property prices have kept rising for 10 months in a row.

Just as 2023 defied the forecasts of all those economists and the media who predicted further price falls, 2024 will do better than the pessimistic predictions that have recently emerged.

The shortage of dwelling both for sale and for rent, at a time of skyrocketing population growth is going to continue into 2024.

And as buyers and sellers realise that we have reached a peak of interest rates and that inflation is coming under control and consumer confidence returns, buyer and seller activity will pick up.

Residential real estate underpins Australia’s wealth

  • The total value of Australian residential real estate was $10.3 trillion at the end of November 2023. This has been increasing month after month and has now reached a new peak.
  • However, outstanding mortgages against all residential housing are only $2.2 trillion – a very comfortable 22% Loan to Value ratio.
  • 56.6% of total Aussie household wealth is held in residential property – one of the many reasons neither the banks, the government nor the RBA wants a property crash.

Residential Real Estate

Dwelling values continued to rise in November

  • Dwelling values across the combined capitals rose 0.6% in November. Monthly growth across the capital cities have broadly eased since recording a recent high of 1.5% in May.
  • Combined capital city values rose 2.2% over the last 3 months while regional property values only rose 1.8% over the last quarter.
  • The positive trend in capital city home sales is a symptom of persistently low levels of available housing supply running up against rising housing demand.
  • As we come to the end of the 2023 selling season there’s an element of FOMO creeping into the market.
  • However, our property markets are fragmented and while most segments growing, some are still languishing.

Change In Dwelling Values 3 Months To November 2023

Rolling Quarterly Change In Dwelling Values

  • National home values rose 2.1% in the three months to November, easing slightly from a recent high of 3.2% in the June quarter.
  • Home values increased 7.0% in the year to November, which is the highest annual rate of increase since July 2022.
  • As you can see from the table below, the pace of growth in capital city is outpacing regional Australia.

Change In Dwelling Values 12 Months To November 2023

Rolling Change In Annual Dwelling Values

Our capital city markets are fragmented

But, as mentioned previously, within each state our housing markets are fragmented, and the more expensive sectors of the market which led to the downturn initially led the upturn early this year.

This is nothing new… the upper quartile of our housing markets has always been more volatile.

But this chart shows how various segments of each capital city market are performing differently with median priced properties performing well.

Quarterly Change In Stratified Hedonic Dwellings Index

Each State is running its own race

Housing Cycle Perth

  • On the one hand, Perth property values are up 13.5% over the year and are now at a record high.
  • On the other hand, Melbourne property values, decreased -0.1% in the month of November and are still -3.8% below the record high, which was in March 2022.

Housing Cycle Melbourne

  • And in the previous darling of the housing markets – Hobart – house prices are -11.1% below their record highs recorded in March 2022.

Housing Cycle Hobart

Brisbane property values increased 10.7% over the last year to record highs.

Brisbane housing cycle

And Sydney property values are now -1.9% below their record high reached in January 2022.

LEAVE A RESPONSE

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *