Key takeaways
In challenging times, it’s crucial to avoid getting caught up in short-term market fluctuations. Property investment is fundamentally about holding onto quality assets over the long haul to allow for capital growth and compounding returns.
Market conditions, media headlines, and opinions can create noise that distracts from sound investment decisions. Focus on reliable data and expert insights, steering clear of alarmist narratives.
A well-chosen, high-performing property is far more valuable than multiple underperforming ones. Investing in locations with strong capital growth potential and properties with unique attributes can offer resilience and growth even in slower markets.
Always keep a financial buffer for unforeseen expenses or interest rate changes. This safety net helps ensure you can hold onto your properties even if cash flow tightens temporarily.
Leverage the expertise of experienced professionals—buyer’s agents, mortgage brokers, and advisors—who can provide insights, help make sound decisions, and manage the complexities of the property market.
Economic and property cycles are natural, so staying committed to a solid, researched investment plan is key. Avoid hasty decisions based on fear or uncertaint
It seems that everyone was an investment genius when the property markets were booming.
But when times get tough it’s important to listen to those who have the perspective of having lived through a number of economic cycles and who take a holistic approach to wealth creation.
And clearly we are now in interesting, and what some would call “challenging” times.
We’re living in a period of relatively high interest rates, economic uncertainty, geopolitical uncertainty and a continual conveyor belt of negative messages in the media is dampening consumer confidence.
And with an election coming up later this year, there is going to be a continual barrage of news about housing affordability, a rental crisis, immigration and why we should reform rental legislation.
And while I’m confident about our economic future, I’m not fooled into thinking that all our economic and business problems are over – far from it!
Now don’t get me wrong – I don’t think there’s a property crash any time ahead, but I clearly see many headwinds that could slow the markets down for the first half of this year – both international and local challenges.
That’s probably why I’ve been asked by both clients and the media what rules do I apply in times like this when the markets are changing in front of our eyes.
I start by explaining that while I’ve been investing for over 5 decades and I’ve amassed a very significant property portfolio which makes me financially independent, I intend to remain active in the property investment markets which means I recognise that I will experience several more significant market downturns and several more property booms.
And I’ve learned not to change my strategy every time the economy or our property markets get challenged.
I invest for the long-term and don’t get thrown off by either the good all the bad phases of the property cycle, because I know they are part of the economic cycle and I recognise that while the ups and downs are short-term; the long-term trend for well-located residential real estate is up.
It’s been that way since Federation and is unlikely to change.
And because it’s easy to get caught up in the panic and drama of the moment, I’ve learned to turn down the noise and be careful who I listen to.
In particular, I’ve learned not to listen to the mainstream media, because they are for the “mainstream” – not the small group of Australians who develop financial literacy.
I know that the job of the media is not to educate us but to entertain us and entice us to click on their links with seductive clickbait headlines.
If, like me, you’re also investing for the long term, here are 12 further rules to keep in mind and help you make it through to the other side.
1. Become financially fluent
The secret to financial freedom is to spend less than you earn, save the balance and then wisely invest your savings in growth assets.
Learn how money, finance, and property work and start investing early so you have time and compounding on your side.
Along the way learn from proven mentors and get a good team around you, but make sure you have a thorough knowledge base because while you can delegate or outsource many tasks, it’s critical to understand if you’re being given impartial advice or if you’re being taken advantage of by the many vested interests after your money.
Becoming financially fluent means you will invest rather than speculate.
One of the reasons most investors don’t develop the financial freedom they deserve is because they don’t understand the rules of money and they end up buying their properties with emotion.
Be it your first property or your next property, it should be part of a long-term plan and a stepping stone to building a substantial portfolio.
The problem is most people buy their investments with emotion.
They’re looking for a property that they would be happy living in, or the buy-in suburbs near where they live, or where they would like to holiday location, or near where they plan to retire.
But, of course, property investment is different from buying your own home – you need a well-thought-out strategy with measurable goals.
By having a plan and a system to gauge the worth of an investment you will achieve better results.
But it can’t just be any old strategy…
2. Adopt a proven investment strategy
Remember 92% of property investors never get past the first or second investment property, so don’t follow the herd; don’t follow the strategy that most property investors follow.
And buying an investment property is NOT a strategy.
Residential real estate is a high-growth, relatively low-yield investment, so I recommend a capital growth investment strategy.
While cash flow is important to keep you in the game, it’s capital growth that will get you out of the rat race, so first concentrate on building a substantial asset base over a number of property cycles, then slowly lower your loan to value ratios and eventually you’ll be able to live off your “Cash Machine.”
It’s too hard to become rich the other way around — from savings or cash flow.
In other words… invest for the long term.
Wealth is created by building a substantial asset base and you achieve this by holding good investments for a reasonably long time, reinvesting your income, and allowing your capital gains to build up.
Of course there’s much more to a successful property investment strategy than that.
You see…attaining wealth doesn’t just happen, it’s the result of a well executed plan.
Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now!
At Metropole my team helps investors by building them a personalised Strategic Property Plan
When you have a Strategic Property Plan you’re more likely to achieve the financial freedom you desire because we’ll help you:
- Define your financial goals;
- See whether your goals are realistic, especially for your timeline;
- Measure your progress towards your goals – whether your property portfolio is working for you, or if you’re working for it;
- Find ways to maximise your wealth creation through property;
- Identify risks you hadn’t thought of.
And the real benefit is you’ll be able to grow your wealth through your property portfolio faster and more safely than the average investor.
Do you have a plan for your financial future?
If so does it contain the following components:
1. An asset accumulation strategy
2. A manufacturing capital growth strategy
3. A rental growth strategy
4. An asset protection and tax minimisation strategy
5. A finance strategy including long-term debt reduction and…
6. A living off your property portfolio strategy
If not please click here and find out how Metropole’s Strategic Property Planning service could help you.
3. Not every property is investment grade
While virtually any property can become an investment — just put a tenant in; few properties are “investment grade” and will strongly outperform the averages over the long term.
Remember that while the location of your property will account for around 80% of its performance, it’s also important to own the right property to suit the local demographic.
4. Don’t believe the hype
Be careful who you listen to for advice.
There are some great independent advisors out there, but the market is flooded with developers, property marketers, and Real Estate agents who don’t really have your best interests at heart.
And don’t believe all the hype in the media…
It’s too easy to get caught up in panic and drama.
Try switching off the nightly news before the finance segment begins and watch some bad reality television instead.
5. Location does the heavy lifting
Location will do 80 % of the heavy lifting for your property’s performance and that’s why I only invest in select suburbs of our three major capital cities.
Now I know there will always be people telling you to invest in regional Australia, but why fight Gorillas – why fight the big trends?
Most jobs, most wages growth, most population growth and most of our economy happens in Australia’s capital cities and in particular in our big 3 capital cities.
The inner and middle-ring suburbs will always outperform with regard to capital growth and have done so over the last 40 years.
Interestingly it wasn’t always this way – at federation regional land was as valuable as capital city property, then we became an industrialised country and people moved to the city.
Now we no longer manufacture goods – it’s all about services – that’s where the higher-paying jobs are and these people have more disposable income.
By the way…I’ve always recommended investing in locations where people have higher disposable incomes and are able to and prepared to pay a premium to live there.
These tend to be the more established suburbs in our big capital cities, and the surrounding gentrifying suburbs.
I can hear some people thinking “Isn’t all the good land taken – isn’t it unaffordable to invest in the 3 big capital cities?”
Fact is, the way people are living is different today…
We’re trading space for place – trading back yards for balconies and courtyards to live in the inner and middle-ring suburbs of our big capital cities, which means you don’t have to own a house.
Townhouses, villa units, and low-rise “family-friendly” established apartments in the right location make great investments.
I know there are people out there coming to invest in the new outer suburbs, but I’m not really convinced that land in Penrith or Point Cook or Toowoomba will ever be more valuable than land near the harbour.
Think about it – where would you live if money was no object?
6. Demographics drive markets
Over the long-term demographics — how many of us there are, how we live, where we want to live and what we can afford to live in — will be more important in shaping our property markets than the short-term ups and downs of interest rates, consumer confidence, and government meddling.
Sure in the short-term immigration will be slower, but over the long term understanding, demographic trends will ensure you’re in the right property in the right location.
7. Real estate investing is a game of finance with some properties thrown in the middle
Cash flow management is critical to successful property investing.
And today more than ever having the right finance strategy is important.
This is little to do with low-interest rates, and much more to do with having the correct finance product and setting aside financial buffers, not just buying a property to buy you time to ride the ups and downs of the property cycle.
8. The economy and our property markets move in cycles
One of the most significant trends I’ve seen over and over in the past almost 50 years of being a student of economics is that investment markets constantly go through cyclical phases of good times and bad.
However, it’s a common fallacy that Australian property cycles last 7-10 years.
They vary in length and are affected by a myriad of social and economic factors and then, at times, the government lengthens or shortens the cycle by changing economic policies or interest rates.
Market sentiment is one of the key drivers of property cycles and one of the reasons why our markets overreact, overshooting the mark during booms and getting too depressed during slumps.
Of course, cyclical events can also create opportunities.
Remember that each property boom sets us up for the next downturn, just as each downturn sets the scene for the next upswing.
But it’s important to try and avoid being thrown off well-thought-out long-term investment strategies by cyclical swings in markets.
It’s very difficult to make sound financial decisions unless you know what you want to achieve/ If you don’t have a plan you tend to default to what other people are doing or what the media is telling you.
That’s why I recommend you allow our team at Metropole to build a Strategic Property Plan for you and your family.
Planning is bringing the future into the present so you can do something about it now! This will give you direction, results, and more certainty. Click here to learn more
9. Follow my 6 Stranded Strategic Approach and only buy a property:
- That would appeal to owner-occupiers. Not that I suggest you sell the property, but because owner-occupiers will buy similar properties pushing up local real estate values. This will be particularly important as the cycle moves on, as the percentage of investors in the market is likely to diminish.
- Below intrinsic value — that’s why I’d avoid new and off-the-plan properties which come at a premium price.
- With a high land to asset ratio — this doesn’t necessarily mean a large block of land, but a property where the land component makes up a significant part of the asset value.
- In an area that has a long history of strong capital growth and that will continue to outperform the averages because of the demographics in the area. These suburbs tend to be areas where more owner-occupiers want to live because of lifestyle choices and where the locals can afford to and will be prepared to pay a premium to live because they have higher disposable incomes.
- With a twist — something unique, different or scarce about the property, and finally;
- Where you can manufacture capital growth through renovations or redevelopment rather than waiting for the market to do the heavy lifting.
10. Don’t focus on bargains — they rarely have a future
In today’s informed market there are very few bargains.
Sure we are experiencing fewer property transactions because of the effects of coronavirus, but there is a flight to quality and buyers have become more discerning.
While it’s often said you make your money when you buy your property, and that’s true, it’s because you buy the right property not because you buy cheaply.
Getting your property $10 -$15,000 cheaper will be a one-off bonus.
On the other hand, buying a property with above-average capital growth potential delivers recurring compounding benefits
Think about it…Properties that no one else wants today will probably be the type of property that no one else will want in 5 years’ time.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get; so buy the best property you can afford — the type of property you’d still be happy to own in 10 to 15 years time.
11. Allow for an X factor
Every year there are a few “X factors” — unforeseen events or situations that blow away all our carefully laid forecasts.
These X-factors can be negative or positive and can be local or from abroad.
Just think back 5 years ago – who would have thought we would have been locked in our houses because of a virus that came from overseas.
Just look back 2 years ago – who would’ve thought we would’ve had 13 interest-rate rises and that they would last so long?
12. Take advantage of the window of opportunity
I see the current market offering a window of opportunity for property investors with a long-term focus.
I expect 2025 will be a year of two halves.
I see the market moving to the next phase of the property cycle when interest rates start to fall later this year.
In general when interest rates decline, the market tends to experience a surge in activity.
More buyers can afford larger loans, and as demand escalates, property prices often soar.
Buyers who were previously priced out of the market start to re-enter, and those on the sidelines rush to buy before prices climb too high.
This creates a snowball effect that can rapidly drive up property values in growth markets.
However, here’s the key takeaway: waiting for rates to drop might mean missing out.
Throughout last year, despite relatively high interest rates, in some areas property prices grew at double digit rates.
There are always markets within markets—while some areas may cool down in the first half of this year, others will still experience growth.
This highlights the importance of looking at data-driven insights and short-term pressure indicators.
I see the current market offering a window of opportunity for property investors with a long-term focus.
We have what someone would call a “perfect storm” of factors that will lead to strong property markets over the next couple of years:
- Continuing strong population growth
- A shortage of skilled labour
- A massive shortage of housing
- Inflation is coming under control, and will soon be within the Reserve Bank’s target range
- Interest rates are set to fall
And when rates do start to fall and buyer and seller confidence returns… the property cycle will move to the next stage.
So as I said, I see this as a window of opportunity for those who are financially in the position to buy their next home or investment property.
Not that I suggest you try and time the market- this is just too difficult, and in truth, you’ve missed the bottom which occurred two years ago in early-2023.
But if the market hands you an opportunity like this, why not take advantage of it?
Taking advantage of the upturn stage of a property cycle has created significant wealth for investors in the past.
Moving forward, demand is going to continue to outstrip supply for some time to come as we experience strong levels of immigration at a time when we’re just not building anywhere as many properties as we require.
At the same time, the cost of construction of delivering new dwellings will keep increasing not only because of supply chain issues and the lack of sufficient skilled labour but also because builders and developers will only commence new projects if they are financially viable and currently new projects will need to come on line at considerably higher prices than the current market price,
And consumer sentiment will rebound when it becomes clear that interest rates are falling, and pent-up demand will be released as greed (FOMO) overtakes fear (FOBE – Fear of buying early), as it always does as the property cycle moves on.
We are also going to be experiencing a prolonged period of strong rental growth – the rental crisis will only worsen further, with no end in sight.
Now I’m not suggesting taking advantage of tenants, what I’m suggesting is to recognise there is currently a problem (lack of rental accommodation) and provide a solution.
So rather than trying to hunt down a bargain, focus on buying an investment-grade property in an A-grade location because these types of properties are in short supply but are still selling for reasonably good prices… Plus they’ll hold their value far better in the long term.
While it might feel counterintuitive to buy at a time when there are so many mixed messages in the media, you can benefit from less competition, low consumer sentiment, minimal downside risk and minimal risk of oversupply.
