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Victoria’s planning reforms could help solve the housing crisis. But they are under threat

The federal election campaign was dominated by the housing crisis.

But the real power to solve it rests with the states.

In Victoria, reforms are underway that promise a bigger boost to the housing aspirations of younger generations than anything that occurs in the federal parliament.

Yet these reforms are now under threat of being killed off in the Victorian parliament.

If that happens, Victoria will have fewer homes and they will be more expensive, and many more younger Melburnians will be locked out of home ownership.

We need to build more homes

At the heart of our housing problem is the fact that we just haven’t built enough homes.

Australia has among the least housing stock per person in the developed world.

This is especially true in places where people most want to live: close to jobs, transport, schools and parks.

The reason is simple: we’ve made it hard to build more townhouses and apartments in the most desirable parts of our biggest cities.

Like in other states, Victorian state and local governments have long restricted medium- and high-density developments to appease local opposition.

The Neighbourhood Residential Zone – the most restrictive residential zone in Victoria – covers more than 42% of residential land within ten kilometres of the Melbourne CBD.

And the politics of land-use planning – what gets built and where – favour those who oppose change.

The people who might live in new housing in established suburbs – if it were to be built – don’t get a say.

The result is a vast “missing middle”: prime inner-city land, close to jobs and transport, with housing rising only one or two storeys.

Melbourne, like Sydney, is one of the least-dense cities of its size in the world, despite the city’s population having risen by 875,000 in the past decade alone.

That is the equivalent of almost two Canberras.

Melbourne And Sydney Are Much Less Dense Than Other Large Global Cities

It’s a myth that most Victorians want a quarter-acre block if that means living a long way from jobs, transport, shops and parks.

Research by both the Grattan Institute and Infrastructure Victoria shows there is substantial demand for townhouses and apartments in established suburbs, if only we built more of them.

If Melbourne’s middle suburbs – those between two and 20 kilometres from the CBD – were as dense as those of Toronto, that increase in density alone could accommodate all of the 800,000 extra homes the state government plans to build over the next decade.

The flow-on effect is high prices and rents, a stagnating economy because fewer people can live close to jobs, and further expensive and environmentally damaging sprawl into farmland and floodplains.

Recent research showed that 8,000 completed apartments in Melbourne remain unsold.

Yet this is less than 3% of all apartments in Melbourne, and is unsurprising given past sharp rises in interest rates and increased barriers to selling to foreign buyers.

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